Kevin Pelton, ESPN Senior WriterJul 2, 2024, 01:24 PM
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- Co-author, Pro Basketball Prospectus series
- Formerly a consultant with the Indiana Pacers
- Developed WARP rating and SCHOENE system
Barely 24 hours after NBA teams were allowed to negotiate with free agents from other teams starting at 6 p.m. ET on June 30, nearly all the top players on the market have struck deals, including Paul George leaving the LA Clippers for the Philadelphia 76ers.
LeBron James is still technically a free agent. Having offered the Los Angeles Lakers a possible pay cut if they land a player worth signing using the non-taxpayer midlevel exception, James is still waiting on that possibility -- but the league's all-time leading scorer is not leaving L.A. this summer.
That leaves DeMar DeRozan of the Chicago Bulls as the only remaining free agent from the top 10 of last month's projections who has yet to agree to a contract and has other teams in pursuit.
With that in mind, let's take a look at an updated list of my top 10 free agents on the market with an eye toward what kind of value pickups might be available to the handful of teams with remaining cap space and several more capable of offering more than the veteran's minimum using exceptions.
1. LeBron James
Los Angeles Lakers | Forward
James' return to Los Angeles is a foregone conclusion. It's just a matter of whether the franchise finds a move that can convince him to take less than his max as part of a new deal. With Klay Thompson heading to the Dallas Mavericks via sign-and-trade, it's unclear how many remaining free agents qualify as the kind of "impact players" James was hoping the Lakers could add. It might be down to the next two on my list.
2. DeMar DeRozan
Chicago Bulls | Forward
The Bulls' moves during the first weekend of free agency have signaled they don't expect DeRozan to return. By agreeing to bring in Jalen Smith as a backup to Nikola Vucevic, Chicago will trigger a hard cap at the lower luxury tax apron. In conjunction with a new contract for forward Patrick Williams, that allows the Bulls to offer DeRozan a maximum starting salary around $21.5 million without a money-saving trade.
If the Lakers are ready to offer DeRozan their $12.8 million non-taxpayer midlevel exception, Chicago would presumably have to do better to keep him from going home to L.A. Alternatively, DeRozan could look to expand his market and his salary range via a sign-and-trade.
3. Miles Bridges
Charlotte Hornets | Forward
Bridges sat out the entire 2022-23 campaign after pleading no contest to felony domestic violence charges in November 2022. Suspended by the NBA for the first 10 games of this past season on top of the time missed, Bridges played for his $7.9 million qualifying offer as a restricted free agent, making him unrestricted this year.
Despite needing to use cap space to complete at least one of the two trades they've struck in the past week to add Josh Green and Reggie Jackson, the Hornets could still re-sign Bridges using full Bird rights. Otherwise, he's one of the few remaining free agents who merits more than the non-taxpayer midlevel in basketball terms.
4. Tyus Jones
Washington Wizards | Guard
The San Antonio Spurs agreeing to sign Chris Paul to play with Jones' younger brother Tre removes his only path to signing with another team as a starting point guard. Although Washington has added other options at the position by dealing for veteran Malcolm Brogdon on draft night and drafting Pitt guard Carlton Carrington, Jones returning on a deal that carries trade value seems like the most likely outcome.
5. Caleb Martin
Miami Heat | Forward
So far, Martin has been left out of the 3-and-D forward carousel that landed Derrick Jones Jr. with the Clippers and Naji Marshall as his replacement in Dallas. As compared to them, Martin is even more accomplished as a playoff contributor, having averaged 12.7 points by shooting 64% on 2s and 42% on 3s during Miami's run to the 2023 NBA Finals. It's possible Martin will simply return to the Heat, though they have to keep their eye on spending with the luxury tax and second apron both concerns.
6. Gary Trent Jr.
Toronto Raptors | Guard
This summer's class of free agents was unusually deep at shooting guard. So far, Malik Monk has struck a deal to return to the Sacramento Kings, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope landed a three-year deal from the Orlando Magic, Klay Thompson went to the Dallas Mavericks via sign-and-trade and De'Anthony Melton replaced him with the Golden State Warriors using the non-taxpayer midlevel exception.
That leaves Trent as my favorite of the remaining options. Though he saw his scoring average dip from 17.4 points to 13.7 last season, Trent shot 39% from 3-point range and is still in his prime at age 25.
7. Isaac Okoro
Cleveland Cavaliers | Forward (Restricted)
The top remaining restricted free agent, Okoro's chances of getting an offer sheet go up if the handful of teams with remaining cap space don't spend it prior to the end of the moratorium July 6. That's the starting point for the clock on matching decisions, which must come by July 7 for offer sheets struck during the moratorium.
By that point, a team making an offer sheet to Okoro will see their cap space tied up for only approximately 36 hours before the Cavaliers must decide whether to match. If no offer for Okoro is coming from another team, negotiations could lag, with the threat of accepting his one-year, $12.7 million qualifying offer as Okoro's only leverage.
8. Buddy Hield
Philadelphia 76ers | Guard
Have a 3-point shot, will travel. Only Stephen Curry (1,618) has made more 3s than Hield (1,600) over the past five seasons, and nobody else is within 260 makes of Hield. At this stage of Hield's career, he likely fits best in a reserve role. Still, Hield could be a difference-maker for a shooting-starved team.
9. Simone Fontecchio
Detroit Pistons | Forward (Restricted)
Given the Pistons sent the Utah Jazz the No. 32 overall pick to get Fontecchio at the trade deadline, it's surprising they haven't yet struck a new deal with him as a restricted free agent. That was a different regime, however, and it's possible new Detroit lead executive Trajan Langdon doesn't value Fontecchio as highly. He's coming off a sophom*ore NBA campaign in which he made 55% of his 2s and 40% of his 3s, starting 43 of the 66 games he played.
10. Luke Kennard
Memphis Grizzlies | Guard
The Grizzlies declined Kennard's $14.8 million team option with an eye toward managing their luxury tax situation. Memphis currently sits $7.3 million below the tax with 13 players under contract. As a result, the Grizzlies could still bring Kennard back at a lower salary using full Bird rights. A 44% career shooter from long distance, Kennard has twice led the NBA in 3-point percentage.
