Pollster finds 'astounding change' in Democratic electorate since Harris' ascension (2024)

A new poll from The Wall Street Journal has found Vice President Kamala Harris neck and neck with Donald Trump after President Biden vacated the Democratic nomination for November’s election.

"Only 37% of Biden voters were enthusiastic about him in early July, and now 81% of Harris voters are enthusiastic about her," Democratic pollster Mike Bocian, who conducted the survey with Republican pollster David Lee, told the Journal. "This is an astounding change."

The former president maintains a 2% lead over Harris in a two-person race, within the Journal’s 3.1% margin of error, indicating Harris has cut into the six-point lead Trump had over President Biden before Biden withdrew from the race last weekend.

When the field expands to include Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and other independent and third-party candidates, the gap slips to a slender 1% lead for Trump over Harris, 45% to 44%. Part of that shift resulted from the change in voter demographics as she has galvanized Democrats and brought high levels of enthusiasm into the party.

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Harris raised $100 million from over 1.1 million unique donors between Sunday afternoon to Monday evening after she announced she would run in place of Biden, marking what her campaign claimed to be the "largest 24-hour raise in presidential history."

Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Trump (Getty Images)

The Journal poll does include good news for Trump, however. Republican pollster David Lee pointed out that Trump was trailing Biden in the July 2020 Journal poll by nine points.

"Donald Trump is in a far better position in this election when compared to a similar time in the 2020 election," Lee told the Journal.

Voters favor Trump on key issues like the economy, immigration, foreign policy and crime and lean toward Harris on abortion.

"Instead of what was shaping up to be a Trump win, America has a real, bona fide race on its hands," veteran political scientist and New England College President Wayne Lesperance told Fox News Digital this week. "Game on."

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A tied national poll would give Trump an advantage in the Electoral College "given the way the country’s population is dispersed," according to the Journal. But Harris has yet to pick a vice presidential candidate, with the likes of Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz; Sen. Mark Kelly, D-Ariz.; and North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper likely to shake up those numbers.

Vice President Kamala Harris drew a large crowd Tuesday afternoon in West Allis, Wisconsin, at a rally. (Fox News Digital)

In Michigan, Harris and Trump remain in a dead heat, according to a Fox News poll released Friday, which marked a three-point shift for Harris, up from Biden’s 46% in April polling.

The poll found that men favor Trump by 13 points, while women back Harris by 12. Trump has a two-point advantage with voters over 45 years old, while Harris has a five-point advantage with voters under 35 years old. Whites without a college degree pick Trump by 15 points, and Harris has a three-point advantage among Whites with a degree and voters of color, who back her by 39 points.

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The race has tightened in battleground states overall, which will prove welcome news for Democrats who pushed for Biden to drop out on word that polling indicated a collapse in those states.

The Butler, Pennsylvania, crowd at former President Trump's rally. (Fox News)

In Minnesota, Harris has a six-point lead, while Trump has a one-point advantage in Wisconsin. The two remain tied in Pennsylvania.

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Fox News surveys in those battleground states found that Trump is meeting or exceeding his 2020 vote share when put into a two-way race with Harris, with greater support among voters who prioritize the economy and immigration as their top issues. Voters who consider abortion a top issue favor Harris.

Harris also enjoys higher favorable ratings than Trump in each state except Michigan, where they remain tied.

Fox News Digital’s Dana Blanton contributed to this report.